NL Estimation Model
The data fetched from ENTSO-E for NL is incomplete. The ENTSO-E production mix does not reflect the data published by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). These differences are mainly due to mislabeled production modes and to coverage.
Figure 1: Production mixes in 2021
The main differences for 2021 between the two datasets are:
- Biomass is much lower on ENTSO-E (3.5%) compared to CBS (8.2%),
- Coal production is significantly higher in the ENTSO-E data (20.9%) compared to CBS (14%),
- Gas seems to be underreported on ENTSO-E (42.5%) compared to CBS (46.9%),
- No hydro and no oil generation reported on the ENTSO-E transparency platform,
- Solar is almost not covered by ENTSO-E, 0.3% compared to 9.6% in CBS data,
- Wind is underreported on ENTSO-E (12.9%) compared to CBS (15.3%). It seems like onshore wind is not fully covered by ENTSO-E. According to the CBS annual data, onshore wind was 55% of total wind production in 2021 compared to 38% in the ENTSO-E data,
- The share of unknown production on ENTSO-E (16.2%) is much higher than on CBS (1.7%),
- Nuclear is the only production mode with matching values between the two datasets.
A significant share of total production is not labeled correctly and is aggregated as unknown in the ENTSO-E data. Unfortunately, it is not possible to know how this unknown production is split across all modes. Consequently, production is estimated using the following Mode Breakdown model:
- Nuclear production is not estimated.
- Solar production is mostly not covered by ENTSO-E and is estimated using Electricity Maps models, replacing the ENTSO-E data.
- Wind production is underreported by ENTSO-E. Wind production is also estimated using Electricity Maps models, replacing the ENTSO-E data.
- The CBS production from gas, coal, biomass, hydro, oil, unknown is aggregated and prorated for each year. These shares are used to reallocate the aggregated remaining ENTSO-E production.
Figure 2: Breakdown of remaining production for 2021
The estimated production mix for 2021 is the following.
Figure 3: Estimated production mix for 2021
