AE, OM and QA estimation models

We fully estimate the production breakdown for the following three GCCIA (Golf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority) zones: AE (United Arab Emirates), OM (Oman) and QA (Qatar).

Our estimation model ingests real-time consumption data. Since the countries import a small share of their power (AE: 0.15%, OM: 1.6%, QA: 0.22% in 2021 [1]), we use consumption data as a proxy for production and omit exchanges from our models.

Using annual statistics of the countries' energy mixes and annual capacity reports [2-4], we trained solar production models for each zone. These estimations are subtracted from the consumption data, giving a residual to be allocated to the remaining power sources.

In Oman and Qatar the residual is re-allocated to the remaining production sources (gas, oil and unknown in Oman, gas and biomass in Qatar) in fixed shares determined by the annual production mixes.

The United Arab Emirates use nuclear power. Since the latter is generally used as a base load, we assume a constant nuclear power generation in AE. The constant production value is derived from the capacity and an estimated capacity utilisation factor derived from the reported production from previous years. In AE, the estimated nuclear and solar production are subtracted from the consumption data. The remainder allocated to gas and a small share of unknown production sources.

[1] Arab Union of Electricity, 2021. “Statistical Bulletin 2019-2021”, https://auptde.org/%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A7%D9%86%D8%A7%D8%AA-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D9%81%D8%AA%D9%88%D8%AD%D8%A9

[2] Climatescope, 2023 “United Arab Emirates”, https://www.global-climatescope.org/markets/ae/

[3] Climatescope, 2023 “Oman”, https://www.global-climatescope.org/markets/om/

[4] Climatescope, 2023 “Qatar”, https://www.global-climatescope.org/markets/qa/