Epidemic Simulator

Modeling how different parameters affect the spread of an epidemic

Mobile View

Model

• There are 3 possible states for an agent: HEALTHY, INFECTED, DECEASED
• An agent's status moves from the HEALTHY to the INFECTED state, whenever contact is made with another infected agent's infection radius, with a probability proportional to the rate of contraction of the disease
• An INFECTED agent eventually moves to the HEALTHY or DECEASED state depending on the mortality rate
• The boxes represent separate isolated communities- agents occassionaly travel between them
• The smaller squares at the centers represent central locations or hubs like grocery stores or schools where population density is high
• The box at the bottom left corner represents an isolation centre like a hospital or quarantine zone
• The graphs and numbers show real time statistics related to the simulation

Controls

• Rate of Contraction: used to model how contagious the disease is- also models hygiene protocols like washing hands and wearing face masks (the rate at which a HEALTHY agent can move to the INFECTED state)
• Mortality rate: the rate at which an INFECTED agent can move to the DECEASED state
• Isolation: the rate at which infected agents are detected and moved to isolation or quarantine (eg. hospitals)
• Social Distancing: a safety measure to reduce the spread of the epidemic by reducing proximity between agents
• Travel: the rate of travel between different isolated communities
• Central Locations: the rate of increase of population density at central hubs
• Simulation speed: the frames per second of the simulation

Learnings

• The spread is affected if, inspite of social distancing protocols, people still occassionaly visit central locations, like grocery stores
• Isolation is beneficial although asymptomatic cases affect detection and isolation
• Travel between different communities affects the spread of the epidemic
• Premature stoppage of safety protocols can cause a resurgence
• Rate of contraction, radius of infection and population density drastically affect the spread of the epidemic

Please Note: This is just a simulation and does not represent any real world data or situations in any way.

Inspired by: 3Blue1Brown