-
Notifications
You must be signed in to change notification settings - Fork 1
/
Truth-Predictive-Power.html
146 lines (134 loc) · 11.2 KB
/
Truth-Predictive-Power.html
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8" ?>
<!DOCTYPE html PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD XHTML 1.0 Strict//EN" "http://www.w3.org/TR/xhtml1/DTD/xhtml1-strict.dtd">
<html xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xml:lang="en" lang="en">
<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=UTF-8" />
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="./images/favicon-32x32.png" sizes="32x32" />
<link rel="icon" type="image/png" href="./images/favicon-16x16.png" sizes="16x16" />
<title>Truth = Predictive Power - SPK's Rationality Essays</title>
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/default.css" />
<link rel="stylesheet" type="text/css" href="./css/highlight.css" />
<!-- <script src="http://ajax.googleapis.com/ajax/libs/jquery/1.10.2/jquery.min.js"></script> -->
<!-- <script type="text/javascript" src="/js/header-links.js"></script> -->
<script type="text/javascript" src="http://cdn.mathjax.org/mathjax/latest/MathJax.js?config=TeX-AMS-MML_HTMLorMML"></script>
<link href="atom.xml" type="application/atom+xml" rel="alternate" title="Sitewide ATOM/RSS Feed" />
<!-- Google Analytics stuff -->
<!-- Google tag (gtag.js) -->
<script async src="https://www.googletagmanager.com/gtag/js?id=G-DEWF2J5BG8"></script>
<script>
window.dataLayer = window.dataLayer || [];
function gtag(){dataLayer.push(arguments);}
gtag('js', new Date());
gtag('config', 'G-DEWF2J5BG8');
</script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://fast.fonts.net/jsapi/f7f47a40-b25b-44ee-9f9c-cfdfc8bb2741.js"></script>
</head>
<body>
<div id="header">
<div id="logo">
<a href="./">SPK's Rationality Essays</a>
</div>
<div id="navigation">
<a href="./">Home</a>
<a href="./notes.html">Notes</a>
<!-- <a href="/about.html">About</a> -->
<a href="./archive.html">Archive</a>
<a href="./atom.xml" type="application/atom+xml" rel="alternate" title="Sitewide ATOM/RSS Feed">RSS</a>
</div>
</div>
<div id="content">
<h1 id="post-title">Truth = Predictive Power</h1>
<!-- <center><img src="https://fbcdn-sphotos-d-a.akamaihd.net/hphotos-ak-prn1/t31.0-8/p600x600/10257116_10202295769100492_2438594605053717342_o.jpg" height="400" width="300" class="sujeet-pic" alt="Sujeet pic" /></center> -->
<p><strong>Entry question</strong>: What does it mean to know the truth about the world?</p>
<hr />
<h1 id="the-truth">The Truth</h1>
<p>Can you say you are in possession of the truth if you have a bunch of technical books on every subject? Is it enough to simply have access to Wikipedia, which has all the information? Or, maybe it should be stored in your head? Then what?</p>
<p>What do we want from “the truth”? What Impact do we seek?</p>
<p>We seek to predict the behaviour of the things in the world - the people, the plants and animals, the stars and planets, the chemicals, and so on.</p>
<p>If you “know” the “truth” about X, but you’re not able to tell me what is gonna happen next to X, then that shit ain’t the truth.</p>
<p>Truth is nothing but Predictive Power.</p>
<p>In other words, you should be able to answer the question: “If X happens, what will happen next?” for pretty much all events X. Example, “If I press this red button, what will happen?”. “If I press this green button, what will happen?”.</p>
<p>All we care about is Predictive Power. That is the name of the game.</p>
<h1 id="knowledge-is-power">Knowledge is Power</h1>
<p>Why do we care so much about Predictive Power? Why do we want to predict the behaviour of everything in the world?</p>
<p>Because if you can predict something, you can control it. You can use it for your own purposes. If you come to know the melting point of iron, then you can use that information to heat up a melter (or whatever) up to that temperature and no more. You don’t have to sacrifice three goats and pray to a god hoping that he will melt the iron in front of you. You know now <em>exactly</em> how it works.</p>
<p>Which means that the Truth (aka Predictive Power) is the Death of all superstitions. If you know exactly how something works, if you can predict its every move, you don’t need to cross your fingers or touch wood or wear an amulet or do paal-kaachifying or start at some auspicious time.</p>
<h1 id="truth-and-decision-making">Truth and Decision-Making</h1>
<p>More generally, if you can predict the outcome for every decision you can take, you can choose the decision that leads to the most preferred outcome.</p>
<p>So, imagine a game-show situation where you are faced with 10 buttons (A, B, C, …). You’ve got to press <em>one</em> of them. Each one gives out a different amount of candy. You want to get the maximum amount of candy possible. So, you ask yourself the questions - “If I press A, how much candy do I get?”. “If I press B, how much candy do I get?”.</p>
<p>So, obviously, you look at all the buttons and the candy they each give, and press the button that gives you the most candy. End of story.</p>
<p>And so is the case with life. You have a bunch of possible decisions (buttons) in front of you. Each decision pays out different amount of utility or happiness or preferred outcomes (aka candy). You pick the decision that gives you the most <del>candy</del> utility.</p>
<p>And that is why Truth-finding is so important to us - knowing the truth means picking the best decision and picking the best decision leads to maximum utility, aka maximum Awesomeness.</p>
<h1 id="subtleties">Subtleties</h1>
<p>As usual, it’s a bit more complicated.</p>
<ul>
<li><p>You don’t actually know what all the possible decisions are. i.e., you are unaware of some of the buttons.</p></li>
<li><p>Plus, you don’t actually know how much candy each button gives you. There is no convenient chart which says “A: 30 pieces of candy; B: 24 pieces of candy”.</p></li>
<li><p>Also, some buttons may be evil. They may take away some of your existing candy and steal your lunch money while they’re at it. They have negative amount of candy. (Is this analogy becoming stretched or what? :P)</p></li>
<li><p>Worst of all, you can’t trust your mind blindly. You might think that button A will give you 30 pieces of candy, when it actually gives you only 16 pieces. Damn! You should have chosen B instead.</p></li>
</ul>
<p>We’ll take on all these problems in further essays.</p>
<h1 id="power-level-measurement">Power Level Measurement</h1>
<p>Now, we have an easy way to measure <em>how much</em> truth we know about the world.</p>
<p>How? By checking the number of predictions you get right!</p>
<p>For example, you’re writing a Math exam and you think (and hope and pray) that the answer to Question 7 is (4 * x^2 - 3). That’s your prediction. The actual answer is whatever it is. How do you know how much of that algebra lesson you’ve “learnt”? By checking how many predictions you got right. Aka your score on the test.</p>
<p>That was a clear-cut example. Everybody measures their math prowess like that.</p>
<p>But how do you measure your “level of knowledge” in more fuzzy areas?</p>
<ul>
<li><p>How do you measure how well you know your friend?</p></li>
<li><p>How do you measure your understanding of “the Economy”?</p></li>
<li><p>How do you measure your understanding of your skill in creating and sustaining relationships with the preferred sex?</p></li>
</ul>
<h3 id="answers">Answers:</h3>
<ul>
<li><p>How often were you able to predict correctly what he would do next or say next? Close friends can literally complete each others’ thoughts.</p></li>
<li><p>Did you predict what happened in the Economy? Did you predict the dollar becoming weak compared to the rupee or whatever?</p></li>
<li><p>Were you f*cking surprised by stuff your love interests did? Did they end up doing stuff you didn’t predict at all? Yup. Means you have no clue what’s going on.</p></li>
</ul>
<h1 id="surprise-surprise">Surprise, Surprise</h1>
<p>Surprise is the key word here. You are knowledgeable to the extent that you are not surprised by things. If you are constantly shocked and blindsided by things that happen in your life, it means you have very low Predictive Power - you are out of touch with the Truth.</p>
<p>You expect X to happen. The complete opposite happens - you suck!</p>
<p>You expect X to happen. X happens - you rock!</p>
<p>How to measure your (Predictive) Power Level - Look at how often you get surprised.</p>
<h1 id="level-up">Level Up</h1>
<p>Whoa! Just realized this. I want to discover and convey <em>maximum</em> possible truths with each essay.</p>
<p>However, I don’t want old truth. I was not surprised by it, which means I predicted it correctly. It doesn’t add to my Predictive Power.</p>
<p>So, with each essay, I want to increase my Predictive Power (and yours too, dear reader).</p>
<p>How can you get maximum possible <em>new</em> truths? How do you increase your Predictive Power like hell?</p>
<p>By seeking out areas where your current predictions are wrong. By seeking out <em>surprise</em>!</p>
<p>This means that the <strong>only way</strong> to improve your knowledge of the world is to seek out places where your predictions are wrong! There is not much point going over areas where you already predict things correctly.</p>
<p><strong>Corollary</strong>: There is not much point in consuming information that does not surprise you.</p>
<p>Refreshing your memory is one thing. But, if you’re reading a new book and nothing surprises you, throw it away. Demand resources that stretch your limit and surprise the f*ck out of your ass. Vote with your wallet (and mouse).</p>
<hr />
<h1 id="ps-ideas">PS: Ideas</h1>
<p>I was surprised by the Surprise and Increase Predictive Power ideas.</p>
<p>Means you have low Predictive Power, SPK. Better luck next time.</p>
<p>Note: Will probably take a day or two off now. XO XO.</p>
<div class="info">Created: October 7, 2014</div>
<div class="info">Last modified: January 22, 2015</div>
<div class="info">Status: finished</div>
<div class="info"><b>Tags</b>: truth, predictive power</div>
<br />
<div id="disqus_thread"></div>
<script type="text/javascript">
/* * * CONFIGURATION VARIABLES: EDIT BEFORE PASTING INTO YOUR WEBPAGE * * */
var disqus_shortname = 'spkrationalitytrainingground'; // required: replace example with your forum shortname
var disqus_identifier = '/Truth-Predictive-Power.html';
var disqus_title = 'Truth = Predictive Power';
/* * * DON'T EDIT BELOW THIS LINE * * */
(function() {
var dsq = document.createElement('script'); dsq.type = 'text/javascript'; dsq.async = true;
dsq.src = '//' + disqus_shortname + '.disqus.com/embed.js';
(document.getElementsByTagName('head')[0] || document.getElementsByTagName('body')[0]).appendChild(dsq);
})();
</script>
<script type="text/javascript" src="https://fast.fonts.net/jsapi/f7f47a40-b25b-44ee-9f9c-cfdfc8bb2741.js"></script>
<noscript>Please enable JavaScript to view the <a href="http://disqus.com/?ref_noscript">comments powered by Disqus.</a></noscript>
<a href="http://disqus.com" class="dsq-brlink">comments powered by <span class="logo-disqus">Disqus</span></a>
</div>
<div id="footer">
Site proudly generated by
<a href="http://jaspervdj.be/hakyll">Hakyll</a>
</div>
</body>
</html>